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11#
发表于 2012-3-31 18:16
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Krieger String & Twine expects to generate a return on equity (ROE) of 13.6% in each of the next five years. The required ROE is 8.7%. Current book value is $12.40 per share and the firm pays no dividends. Krieger previously assumed residual income falls to zero immediately after five years, but has now decided to recalculate its estimated value using a persistence factor of 35%. The difference between the new valuation and the old one is closest to:
To answer this question, we need to establish the residual values using the following equations:
Earnings = prior year book value × ROE
Equity charge = prior year book value × required ROE
Residual income = earnings − equity charge
Here is a table containing the relevant values.
Year | Earnings (ROE = 13.60%) | Book Value | Equity Charge (Required ROE = 8.70%) | Residual Income | PV of Residual Income | 0 | | $12.40 | | | | 1 | $1.69 | $14.09 | $1.08 | $0.61 | $0.56 | 2 | $1.92 | $16.00 | $1.23 | $0.69 | $0.58 | 3 | $2.18 | $18.18 | $1.39 | $0.78 | $0.61 | 4 | $2.47 | $20.65 | $1.58 | $0.89 | $0.64 | 5 | $2.81 | $23.46 | $1.80 | $1.01 | $0.67 |
Company value = $12.40 + the sum of the residual incomes
Assuming residual value drops to zero after year five, the company is valued at $15.46 per share.
Now, we modify the model to reflect the persistence factor of 35%. The only value that persistence factor effects is the terminal value. Instead of discounting the Year 5 residual income by 1 + required ROE, we discount it by 1 + required ROE − persistence factor. The new values are as follows:
| Book Value | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4/5 | Value | $12.40 | $0.56 | $0.58 | $0.61 | $1.62 |
For a total value of $15.78 per share, or $0.32 higher than the original value. |
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