Reading 19: Foreign Exchange Parity Relations-LOS m 习题精选 2011, currency, exchange, expected, relation

土豆妮

Session 4: Economics for Valuation
Reading 19: Foreign Exchange Parity Relations

LOS m: Discuss the foreign exchange expectation relation between the forward exchange rate and the expected exchange rate.

 

 

The Asian Spec Fund, managed by Jonathan Khamal, CFA, engages in currency speculation for its clients. Based in Paris, Khamal believes that there is an opportunity to speculate on the Malaysian Ringgit. The current spot exchange rate is 4.417 Malaysian Ringgit per euro. Assuming the one-year risk-free rate for the European Economic Community is 11.76% and the Malaysian one-year risk-free interest rate is 7.6%, what should the one-year forward rate be for the Malaysian Ringgit?

A) 4.246 MR/EUR.

B) 4.586 MR/EUR.

C) 4.253 MR/EUR.

---

 

The formula for covered interest rate parity is: F / S₀ = (1 + r_FC) / (1 + r_DC)

Forward premium or discount:

(F – S₀) / S₀ = [(1 + r_FC) / (1 + r_DC)] ? 1 = (r_FC – r_DC) / (1 + r_DC)

By substituting:

%F = [(1 + 0.076) / (1 + 0.1176)] – 1
%F = [1.076 / 1.1176] – 1
%F = -0.0372
F = 4.417 MR/EUR × (1 – 0.0372) = 4.253 MR/EUR

土豆妮

Which of the following statements best defines the foreign currency risk premium? The foreign currency risk premium is the:

A) extra cost of hedging foreign currency denominated assets with forward contracts.

B) forward premium on foreign currency forward contracts.

C) foreign currency risk of holding all foreign currency denominated assets.

---

Some investors with foreign currency assets may be willing to pay more than the expected spot rate to hedge the uncertainty of holding foreign currency assets by taking a short position in the foreign currency. Others will demand more than the expected spot rate to sell the foreign currency forward and bear the uncertainty of the spot rate. That extra amount is the risk premium; think of it as a “cost” of hedging foreign currency-denominated assets with forward contracts. If there were no risk premium, hedging with forward contracts would be costless.

土豆妮

According to the foreign exchange expectation relation, which of the following is an unbiased predictor of the expected future spot exchange rate?

A) Expected change in spot rates.

B) Inflation rate.

C) Forward rate.

---

The foreign exchange expectation relation says that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the expected future spot rate: F = E (S₁)

土豆妮

Ronald Lots, CFA, is an international currency portfolio manager seeking speculative opportunities in the euro. While reviewing the forward rates for the euro, he notices that there is a forward premium of 4.25% on the euro relative to the U.S. dollar. Which of the following statements is correct? The euro is expected to:

A) appreciate at least 4.25% against the U.S. dollar.

B) depreciate 4.25% against the U.S. dollar.

C) appreciate 4.25% against the U.S. dollar.

---

According to the foreign exchange expectation relation forward discounts and premiums can be unbiased predictors of expected changes in spot exchange rates. With the forward euro rate trading at a premium of 4.25%, the euro is expected to appreciate by the same 4.25% against the dollar.