So we're not going to get 46%, are we? taking

w1977

I'm kicking myself for not taking this in June. How did that pass rate get so elevated over historical norms and is there any chance CFA keeps it elevated?

studyn

The higher pass mark is almost certainly due to the fact that more candidates spent more time studying (i.e. were out of work).

Given CFAI's MPS calculation (Modified Angoff method) it is very unlikely that the three-part answer would make the slightest difference. Suppose that all four answers had looked equally plausible. The MPS previously would have meant that 1 in 4 guesses were right; now it is 1 in 3, an increase of just 1 in 12. Given that you need around 2/3 correct answers to pass, this difference is just a few marks, a minor tweak in the MPS.

So each of you has a particular hurdle to achieve in order to pass, but that is entirely independent of how your peers perform.

JRossSter

I used to care about things like this in college where grades were curved based on performance of the class. Then I realized the only important thing to worry about is your own individual performance and doing the best you can. Stick to this and you will always come out on top. Dont worry about what everyone else is doing.

sdada

and i thought the pass rate is either of

a) 70%
b) 70% of the top 1 percentile scores.

Has it changed in last few years.

BearDown15 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The 3 answer format leading to a higher pass rate
> argument holds no water when looking at June
> results. Everyone cheered when Level 1 pass rates
> came out in June at 46%. The thought being, people
> were out of work, studied more, and had a better
> chance at guessing the right answer this time
> around.
>
> Then Level 2 and 3 scores came out in August, and
> this argument stopped very quickly. Level 2 is all
> multiple choice and also had the 3 answer format
> for the first time. The Level 2 pass rate dropped
> to 41% from 46% in 2008. Level 3 is half multiple
> choice, so a direct comparison can't be drawn, but
> still, that pass rate dropped to 49% from 53% in
> 2008.
>
> Yes, the Level 1 pass rate was unusually high in
> June, and there may be a specific reason for it,
> but I refuse to believe it had to do with the 3
> answer format. The CFAI sets that Minimum Passing
> Score to be whatever they want. The pass rate
> could be 30% for the December test, it could be
> 50%. Only they know, and you'll just have to wait
> and see.

disiz64

I still do think the pass rate was higher due to ppl studying at home. Most ppl started studying lvl 1 when they were let go from their jobs so that doesn't really affect lvl 2 scores, there wasn't a recession when lvl 2 ppl took lvl1.
Yes I do think CFAI sets the min passing score but I do believe the high pass rate in June was unanticipated.
I for sure believe Dec passing rate will be lower. We'll just wait and see.

Kiakaha

There are some 80% and 90% pass rates in there

cchang

The 3 answer format leading to a higher pass rate argument holds no water when looking at June results. Everyone cheered when Level 1 pass rates came out in June at 46%. The thought being, people were out of work, studied more, and had a better chance at guessing the right answer this time around.

Then Level 2 and 3 scores came out in August, and this argument stopped very quickly. Level 2 is all multiple choice and also had the 3 answer format for the first time. The Level 2 pass rate dropped to 41% from 46% in 2008. Level 3 is half multiple choice, so a direct comparison can't be drawn, but still, that pass rate dropped to 49% from 53% in 2008.

Yes, the Level 1 pass rate was unusually high in June, and there may be a specific reason for it, but I refuse to believe it had to do with the 3 answer format. The CFAI sets that Minimum Passing Score to be whatever they want. The pass rate could be 30% for the December test, it could be 50%. Only they know, and you'll just have to wait and see.

Bulla564

The high pass rate is due to 3 answer choices and the amount of ppl who are jobless sitting at home and studying for this exam (I know about 5 myself). That's what killed the curve in June I believe. If you guys noticed on the December exam, most of the questions, especially in the pm section, you couldn't decide between 2 answers. They made the exam harder for sure. Plus of course the more ppl pass the less $ they make come to think of it so I honestly believe they will make sure to keep passing % at 30-35.

soddy1979

http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprog/pdf/candidate_results.pdf

from the historical pass rates, the trend is that june/dec results for the same year was always the same with about 2% MAbsoluteDeviation.

so my prediction is 46% for december too



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at Monday, December 7, 2009 at 10:16PM by hellohello.

scr879

If I were in CFAI management committee and if there was any issue of revenues going down, I would get more people into the program.

That is, by letting more people pass L1 and then restrict their exit from L2 and L3.

That way, CFA program is not diluted and they still get more revenues.

If this is their strategy, I dont see any reason why pass rates should be any lower this time.

Anyways, we will have verification in less than 2 months.

Hope it is like this and good luck to you all for your results. I dont mean to take away any credit for your hard work though. But wishing for higher pass rate is wishing for better luck on your side.