Can the Minimum Passing Score be curved up (above 70%)? meaning, average, passing

richer1983

It was my understanding that the Minimum Passing Score was determined by taking the average of either the top ten scores or the top one percent and then multiply that by .7 (to obtain a number that is 70% of the top scores). I have heard many say that the top one percent are averaged but I also met a grader who told me that it was the top ten scores in years past.
So, by that rationale the minimum passing score can never be more than 70%, meaning you get a 70% you are guarenteed to pass. Is this correct? If not, can someone explain to me how the MPS can be curved up?

Thank you!

orang3eph

when i say indians, i mean candidates apperaing from india..That counts indians and chinese appearing from US as americans and so on..

kmf229

keelim, undoubtedly that would have an impact. That said, I'd say that the vast majority (upwards of 90%) of people who are going to pass the test will do so in a fashion where 10 minutes will make little difference. I guess my point is that even with both those factors considered, I doubt if it moved the average score more than about 1%.

burnsy562000

mfin27,

I get what you are saying, the problem I have with percentiles(even though the probability is slim) is what you had mentioned about others being disadvantaged given a certain environment.

Obviously smarter people than myself have thought about this and likely come up with the best solution using the Angoff method, it does suck that we don't really have at least a general reference if we can't use the top 1% method as a guide. The Angoff method should theoretically take into account if a test is harder or easier because the experts would either say that the minimum qualified candidate would know say 168 questions for an easy test and 156 for a hard one(just as an example).

My guess is in reality they use a combination of the two methods to come up with a reasonable outcome and check against one another for a conflict. If the top 1% was scoring 90% and so 63% is the pass according to that standard, if the panel decides that the minimum qualified candidate should get 65% right, then they could say "wait a minute" and come up with a compromise, assuming a 2% deviation is out of ordinary and cause for concern of course.

I hear people saying that this test was easier and I agree but I agree because it was my second time taking it so I am also better prepared so I am biased and it should seem easier. I assume they know how to properly write the test and make it fairly consistent.

Prob just semantics at this point. ;-)

Ben

pogo

You should read my post on the "theory of minimum passing score"

Essentially all that matters still is how the top 1% of people do and what the CFA deems to be the MPS, that's it. If the new format helps people(which I don't think it does that much) that will just help others have a better chance of passing, not failing.

Assume the top 1% score 95%, they are likely not guessing on much of anything, so they should stay consistent. 70% of 95 is 67%. That is the MPS, if the new format somehow makes it so that those who would have gotten 66% now get 67%, then they pass.

The other factor is the MPS set by the CFA, I don't know how they combine these two if they are different but maybe they determine based on this test that the MPS should be 68% and not 67%. In either scenario, the level at which you would pass or fail is determined by the top scorers or the CFA institute which should not be affected by the slight increase in chance guessing.

Just my opinion but seems logical to me.

Ben

bluejazzy

@legacy:

Yes, part of the idea is to show the higher score overall, but the greater idea that I am trying to drive home is that one of the two truths i.e. 70% passing score and 30th percentile passing rate will no longer hold true after the results. In my simplistic model, the test taker had no clue in the ones he guessed so the 50-50 theory doesn't apply there. I do agree that in the real test one must adjust for the educated guessing on some questions just as you describe - eliminating the 2 choices in old format and only 1 in new format - let's call it guessing convexity, ha ha). But on some questions, candidates would have no clue so that would be closer to the .33 probability rule.

Also, I did read your MPS theory and that makes a lot of sense. But here is one issue. For that theory to be true in the old version, and the two facts of 70% passing rate and 30th percentile passing rate to also be concurrently true, the top 1% must have scored 100%. 70% of 100% = 70%. Which is almost impossible. Now if the 70% passing score is not true then MPS can be true with a lower passing score of 67% or whatever the case may be. But then the claims of 70% being a pass score are not true for sure.

Summary: Either MPS is true or the 70% of passing score is true. But both cannot be true at the same time.

shootingstar

@legacy

I definitely know that last time in December the passing rate was close to 30% rather than 35%. And I know the gold standard of 70% passing score, so that is what I entered in the linear equations above.

Off the analysis now:

Here is a philosophical argument against the MPS, if cfa does use this method. The MPS method seems to not account for easiness or the toughness of the test. Let us say a very easy test came (not too dissimilar from what happened in June 2009). Now, top 1% would be very close to 100, lets say 98. The MPS would say any candidate who scored 70% of 98 passes. This translates to 68.6. But what MPS does not account is HOW MANY and WHAT % of people are falling in this zone of 68.6>= to <= 100. So potentially you can have 50% of the candidates in this zone! Percentile based scoring would eliminate this bias and would ensure only 30% candidates pass. Of course the criticism there is that in case a smart batch of candidates appears, then the average candidate is at a disadvantage. So neither scoring approach is totally fair. Nor is an ad-hoc score because that would also not account for the easiness or the toughness of the test. A 70% score in Dec 08 test definitely meant more than 70% score in June 2009.

I do think cfa should have an either/or scoring approach under which if a candidate scores more than 70% then he passes for sure or if the candidate scores in top 25th percentile then the candidate passes for sure. But if the candidate is not in top 35th percentile or has not scored above 65% then he or she must not pass. So there is a small wedge between which can act as a buffer for the toughness or the easiness of the test and can be discretionally manipulated.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at Wednesday, June 10, 2009 at 03:57PM by mfin27.

evolsteevol

mfin27,

While you are technically correct I think all you are showing is that everyone this time around may have a higher score due to the perceived increase in guessing a right answer. It should still stay a level playing field with the level just simply being a bit higher due to the added probability of blindly guessing correctly.

The reason I doubt it has as much of an impact(besides for the people who really didn't know a lot on the test) is because on the old version you could usually eliminate 2 of the 4 questions giving you a 50/50 chance, and on this test you could usually eliminate 1 of the questions, giving you a 50/50 chance. So in reality for most people taking the test and not just having to totally guess the odds are not really that much improved.

Speaking of luck though it would be my luck to take the test the year a 70% does not equal a pass, but I doubt that will happen either.

Ben

ishfaque

I don't think three answers rather than four will help anyone significantly, other than the person guessing everything (who will fail regardless). The typical person can usually reduce it down to two answers, and in this case it's two answers that would be in both the three and four question format. CFAI has said they just got rid of the obvious wrong answer. Therefore, 70% may still be an adequate threshold, but we'll see next month.

pacmandefense

I didn't read the thread but props for possibly the best name on AF. well done.