Kelly Gerard, CFA, a currency trader with the Mega Currencies Fund, is interested in using relative purchasing power parity (PPP) to identify value situations among currencies. Gerard believes that a currency’s fundamental value can be established by its inflation rate. Which of the following statements is CORRECT in Gerard’s assumptions regarding relative PPP? Relative PPP can help to identify:
A) |
overvalued currencies that could tend to depreciate immediately. | |
B) |
overvalued currencies that could tend to depreciate over the long run. | |
C) |
undervalued currencies that could tend to depreciate over the long run. | |
Although evidence tends to suggest that PPP does not hold in the short run, empirical evidence suggests that relative PPP does tend to hold more closely over the longer term. Currencies that become overvalued or undervalued in relation to PPP over time tend to eventually revert back to the long-term level predicted by relative PPP. That means relative PPP is somewhat useful in exchange rate determination in the short run because currencies that are overvalued relative to their PPP-determined fundamental value will tend to depreciate, while undervalued currencies will tend to appreciate. However, the adjustment period can sometimes be quite long (i.e., several years). |