This years L2 pass rate? perhaps, present, putting, effort, higher

maratikus

Just for a little fun and perhaps distraction, what do we think this years pass rate might be on L2?

2009 = 41%
2008 = 46
2007 = 40
2006 = 48
2005 = 56
2004 = 32

Last summers L1 pass rate was 46% vs 32% for the Dec exam...

Are we due a higher pass rate with candidates putting the effort into their studies or will CFA present us with a shocker of a paper?

wizofoz

theL1 pass rate last summer was too high - they'll probably be pretty tough this time around

xilinx_altera

My guess, based on absolutely no evidence or rationale at all, is 45%

firat

I'm not liking my chances at the moment, that's for sure

economicz

I appreciate the comments ref last summer, but just by looking at the pass rates above, there almost looks to be some give and take adjustments to the pass rate based on the previous years level,,agree 45% would make sense, but how do you shoot for that with any accuracy?

Tough is all very well, consistency would make more sense as far as candidates are concerned.

xilinx_altera

looks like there is negative serial correlation in the pass rates...

maryli

44%, everyone who used AF since L1 will pass!! whoot whoot

zephyranalyst

I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence)

The regression never lies.

random_walker47

BobFishcake Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark
> will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of
> confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between
> -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence)
>
> The regression never lies.

What's your R^2? Did you test for conditional heteroskedasticity or serial correlation? Did you take into account the exam format has changed from essay to multiple choice?

NO EXCUSES

genuinecfa

It's time series data, guys. AR(1) with seasonality