2008 CFA Level 1 － Sample 样题(2)－Q12

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12、A fundamental analyst studying 100 potential companies for inclusion in her stock portfolio uses the following three screening criteria:

Screening Criterion

Number of Companies
meeting the screen

Market-to-Book Ratio >4

Current Ratio >2

Return on Equity >10%

Assuming that the screening criteria are independent, the probability that a given company will meet all three screening criteria is closest to:

A. 2.0%.

B. 8.5%.

C. 20.0%.

D. 85.0%.

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-11-7 13:45:30编辑过]

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发表于 2008-5-27 12:22 | 只看该作者

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12、A fundamental analyst studying 100 potential companies for inclusion in her stock portfolio uses the following three screening criteria:

Screening Criterion

Number of Companies
meeting the screen

Market-to-Book Ratio >4

Current Ratio >2

Return on Equity >10%

Assuming that the screening criteria are independent, the probability that a given company will meet all three screening criteria is closest to:

A. 2.0%.

B. 8.5%.

C. 20.0%.

D. 85.0%.

Correct answer = A

"Probability Concepts," Richard A. Defusco, Dennis W. McLeavey, Jerald E. Pinto, and David E. Runkel
2008 Modular Level I, Vol. 1, pp. 327-329
Study Session 2-8-e
calculate and interpret 1) the joint probability of two events, 2) the probability that at least one of two events will occur, given the probability of each and the joint probability of the two events, and 3) a joint probability of any number of independent events
The joint probability of the three independent criteria:
0.2 x 0.4 x 0.25 = 0.02 or 2% of the 100 companies.