Given the following information:
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The U.S. interest rate is 6%.
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The GBP/USD spot rate is 2.2.
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The GBP forward rate is 2 GBP/USD
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The domestic Great Britain interest rate is 8%.
Which of the following statements is correct?
A) |
Capital will flow into Great Britain. | |
B) |
If you start by borrowing $1,000, your arbitrage profits will be $128. | |
C) |
If you start by borrowing 1,000 GBP, your arbitrage profits will be 116 GBP. | |
We know that arbitrage is possible because 2.2 × (1.08/1.06) = 2.2415 > 2.0. This means that the pound is overvalued in the forward market (it takes too few of them to buy one dollar), and should be sold forward. This means that we need to buy pounds today so that we have them to sell forward. Step 1: Borrow $1,000 at 6% (repay $1,060 in one year), convert the $1,000 at the spot rate to 2,200 GBP Step 2: Lend out the GBP 2,200 at 8% (will receive GBP 2,376 in one year) Step 3: Sell the pounds forward at the quoted forward rate, 2,376/2 = $1,188 Step 4: Repay loan, $1,188 ? $1,060 = $128 profit
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