Assume that one year ago, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) was quoted at Australian Dollar (AUD) 0.82500 and that today the CAD is trading at AUD 0.8011. Assume that Canada and Australia are trading partners. Which of the following statements is least likely? Over the past year, the Canadian:
A) |
government recently undertook an unanticipated expansionary fiscal policy action. | |
B) |
government undertook an unanticipated expansionary monetary policy action. | |
C) |
economy grew at a faster rate than the Australian economy. | |
From the given exchange rates, we determine that the Canadian Dollar has depreciated against the Australian Dollar (the CAD now buys less units of AUD). The increased aggregate demand results in higher economic growth and higher inflation. These two factors normally result in currency depreciation in the long run. An unanticipated shift to a more expansionary fiscal policy will, however, in the short run (and we are told that the policy change was recent) lead to appreciation. The third impact of the policy, increased budget deficits and government borrowing, increases real interest rates, resulting in currency appreciation. This last effect dominates in the short run. The policy change is recent and there should have been recent appreciation if the government recently undertook an unanticipated expansionary fiscal policy action.
The other statements would most likely lead to currency depreciation (or demand for foreign currency). An unanticipated shift to expansionary monetary policy would lead to currency depreciation. The expansionary policy leads to higher economic growth, an accelerated inflation rate (increased demand for foreign goods), and lower real interest rates (the country’s assets are less attractive to foreigners). All these factors cause a nation’s currency to depreciate.
|