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# 求教cfa一级quantitative methods问题！！答案表示看不太懂呀（哭）

 1.A stock has an expected mean return of 8 percent and standard deviation of 2 percent. Assuming the return is normally distributed, the probability that the return will fall between 6 and 10 percent is closest to: A.        50% B.        68% C.        90% 选b，过程是怎么出来的呢？答案只表明了和shortfall risk有关 2.At the beginning the stock price is \$10. The price movement of the stock follows a one-period binomial process. The upside of the stock price is 1.06 times the original price, and the downside is 0.94 times the original price. If the average ending price after a 5000 independent is 10.2, what is the probability of an up move(p)? A.        0.11 B.        0.66 C.        0.18 选b，考点是binomial distribution

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 For question 1, it is all about standard normal distribution. The mean is 8%, and std. dev. is 2%, so 6% is one standard deviation below mean while 10% is one standard deviation above mean. Based on the Z statistical table, z-value = 1 has a probability 34%, thus, the probability of return falling between 6% and 8% is 68%. For question 2, you can use common sense to find the correct answer: if the chance of going up is less than 50%, then the final expected value of the stock would be less than the initial value. So the other two options are 0.11 and 0.18 (implying a down side probability of 0.89 and 0.82), their final expected values would be very close to 0. This is a very poorly constructed question and I don't expect it will appear in the exam.
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