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周教授CFA金融课程:考点精讲+作答须知(2019年CFA三级全系列课程)

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周教授CFA金融课程:2019年CFA一二三级系列课程

求教cfa一级quantitative methods问题!!答案表示看不太懂呀(哭)

1.A stock has an expected mean return of 8 percent and standard deviation of 2 percent. Assuming the return is normally distributed, the probability that the return will fall between 6 and 10 percent is closest to:
A.        50%
B.        68%
C.        90%
选b,过程是怎么出来的呢?答案只表明了和shortfall risk有关

2.At the beginning the stock price is $10. The price movement of the stock follows a one-period binomial process. The upside of the stock price is 1.06 times the original price, and the downside is 0.94 times the original price. If the average ending price after a 5000 independent is 10.2, what is the probability of an up move(p)?
A.        0.11
B.        0.66
C.        0.18
选b,考点是binomial distribution

For question 1, it is all about standard normal distribution. The mean is 8%, and std. dev. is 2%, so 6% is one standard deviation below mean while 10% is one standard deviation above mean. Based on the Z statistical table, z-value = 1 has a probability 34%, thus, the probability of return falling between 6% and 8% is 68%.
For question 2, you can use common sense to find the correct answer: if the chance of going up is less than 50%, then the final expected value of the stock would be less than the initial value. So the other two options are 0.11 and 0.18 (implying a down side probability of 0.89 and 0.82), their final expected values would be very close to 0. This is a very poorly constructed question and I don't expect it will appear in the exam.

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