Reading 25: Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 －LOS d~ white, black, class, investment

mayanfang1

Q4. Karen Doyle and Amy Rodriguez are economists for a large U.S. investment advisory firm, Woodlawn Advisors. Doyle and

Rodriguez use their independent research on developed country stock markets and emerging stock markets to provide advice

for the firm’s network of advisors. As the senior economist at Woodlawn, Doyle is a partner in the firm and is Rodriguez’s

supervisor. Rodriguez has worked for Woodlawn for the past four years. At a lunch meeting, the two economists discuss the growth

prospects in BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries and compare them to the countries of the G6 (U.S., Japan, U.K., Germany, France, and Italy).

In their discussions, Doyle states that forecasted growth for the BRIC countries is quite impressive, especially in those countries with stable economic environments. She states that, by the year 2050, the per capita income in U.S. dollar terms in the majority of BRIC countries will exceed that in the G6 countries. Rodriguez is also very interested in BRIC country prospects, particularly in the factors necessary to sustain economic growth in the BRICs. She states that inflation need not hinder BRIC future growth, and that double-digit inflation may be necessary for BRICs to sustain future growth. Otherwise, she states, restrictive monetary policy can impede growth in an emerging economy.

Turning their attention next to currency valuation in the BRIC countries, Doyle states that currency values can be compared to that predicted by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). For example, she states that if the current value of the Brazilian real is $0.53, then the value predicted by PPP should be higher, at say $0.60. Rodriguez states that, by the year 2050, the value predicted by PPP and the actual currency value should converge to a level higher than the current.

Doyle and Rodriguez then discuss the risks faced by investors in emerging markets. Doyle states that because many emerging countries have unstable political and social systems, the investor must carefully analyze the risk in these countries. She states that bond investors should examine the deficit to GDP ratio. Ratios greater than four percent indicate substantial credit risk of the country’s bonds. Rodriguez states that these small economies are often heavily dependent on the technology industry and their undiversified nature makes them susceptible to volatile capital flows and economic crises.

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-7 10:47:24编辑过]

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月亮姐姐

最忠诚的朋友


  我家有一条最忠诚的狗名叫发财，它已经陪伴我九年了，如果按动物的实际年龄它应该有40多岁了。我深深的记得刚抱回家时它奇丑无比，是我家孩子她舅妈从别人挑剩下的一窝小狗中抱来我家的。当时家人和邻居都不喜欢它，只有我精心照顾它，当时我家还在租平房住，没有地方垒窝，它只好每天睡在我给它准备的大纸箱里。我家发财长得很快，不到四个月就变了模样，出落得很俊俏，原来是条博美犬。自从我家养了这条宠物犬，我家的生活就增添了很多乐趣。发财也知谁对它最好，每天总是跟在我身后形影不离。发财长到现在生过上海电波拉皮最好的医院三次大病，都是我抱它到兽医院诊断治疗的，最严重的那次就连兽医都说没啥治疗价值了，因为它得了犬瘟热，是一种致死率相当高的犬类病。我倒是坚信我的狗的生命力很强是不会轻易离开我的，于是我就想尽办法医治它，用了很多偏方，咨询了很多有经验的农民，最后硬是把我的发财从死神线上拉了回来。
   我家发财假体隆鼻很懂事，是我养的多条狗中最懂事的一条狗，它对食物从不挑剔，主人给什么就吃什么，并且它从不偷主人东西吃，从不在家大小便，从不乱咬人。我每天下班回来，刚到一楼它就在六楼我家里叫着和我打招呼，因为它熟悉我的脚步声。我若假体丰胸是能给它带回食物，它就会原地站起来给我作揖。直到我把食物给它。它才肯坐下来慢慢享用。发财记性很好，我家的所有亲属每年只能聚一回二回的，可它却能一一记住，只要是看到，它就会跑到身旁摇头摆尾，嘴里发出欢快的的叫声。我哥哥去外地定居，每五六年才能回来一趟，可发财还能始终记得，一看到它，就扑上前去和他撒娇。我家发财还是家庭问题调解员，每当我双眼皮们夫妻吵架声音比较大或我大声训斥孩子时，它都会跑到我跟前冲我大声狂吠，意在抗议我破坏家庭宁静。它用它的方式表达对我的不满。至于家中煤气罩上的水壶水开了，它也会叫着报警。宛若是家庭中称隆鼻职的安全管理员。
   长时间的相处，我的家人和发财之间早已形成默契。每次领它外出，它都主动让主人套上锁链，主动抬脚缩脖竭力配合。我每次领它上山它都兴奋不已，竟然在山野间奔跑撒欢。和发财相处久了，我的家人早已不把它当作一条狗来对待，而是把它当作家庭中的一个成员，当它几次生病时，我女儿哭了不知有多少场。它在我家已成为我们家人的的开心果，女儿的玩具和忠实的财产看护人。
    狗是人类最忠诚的沉默的朋友，也是最忠诚的朋友。它对主人的热爱和忠诚，人们都愿意津津乐道，它对人的依恋和信任是任何动物无法相比的。由此我想到，我们人类为人处事为什么不可以向狗学习，学它什么呢，我想有三点要学：一是学习它对事业的专一和对人的忠诚（主人即使几天不在家它也不擅离职守，肯为主人一直守候家园，绝无二心）；二是学习它善于承受孤独寂寞，从无丝毫怨言；再就是可以学学它为人处事，善于夹着尾巴做人，于世无争。这其实也是我们为人低调生活态度的体现。