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- 2017-5-9
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- 2022-8-21
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2#
发表于 2019-2-28 21:03
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For question 1, it is all about standard normal distribution. The mean is 8%, and std. dev. is 2%, so 6% is one standard deviation below mean while 10% is one standard deviation above mean. Based on the Z statistical table, z-value = 1 has a probability 34%, thus, the probability of return falling between 6% and 8% is 68%.
For question 2, you can use common sense to find the correct answer: if the chance of going up is less than 50%, then the final expected value of the stock would be less than the initial value. So the other two options are 0.11 and 0.18 (implying a down side probability of 0.89 and 0.82), their final expected values would be very close to 0. This is a very poorly constructed question and I don't expect it will appear in the exam. |
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