Normal Contango

please, someone, expected, contract, understand

Can someone please help me understand Normal contango?
i understand that normal contango means that futures price is higher than expected spot price in the future. What I don't get is will the futures price rise or fall over the life of the contract?

Thx

ayaz_mahmud369

CFA Candidates

Rank: 2

UID: 223412
帖子: 334
主题: 15
注册时间: 2011-7-11
最后登录: 2014-8-7

2^#

发表于 2011-7-11 15:22 | 只看该作者

Not sure if you are talking about roll yields...but futures prices will converge to the spot rate over time. If you are talking about roll yields (rolling mature contracts forward), if you are long the position and it is in contango, the roll yield will be negative as the futures price converges to the spot rate. If it is backwardation, the roll yield will be positive as the price converges upward to the spot rate.

TOP

stalkey

CFA Candidates

Rank: 2

UID: 223459
帖子: 302
主题: 9
注册时间: 2011-7-11
最后登录: 2014-8-4

3^#

发表于 2011-7-11 15:22 | 只看该作者

I have been confused regarding normal contango / normal backwardation, and I found a very helpful video on youtube with charts. I would highly recommend it if this subject is not intuitive, especially if you are a visual person.

just search 'normal contango' on youtube, it's from bionic turtle (thank you mr. bionic turtle, whoever you are)

It's about 8 minutes, and the "normal" part starts at 3:30, the first section is a review of contango and backwardation (not the "normal" flavor).

TOP

giants2010