|
- UID
- 223415
- 帖子
- 346
- 主题
- 18
- 注册时间
- 2011-7-11
- 最后登录
- 2014-7-31
|
5#
发表于 2011-7-13 16:57
| 只看该作者
I think about it like this -
20 flat out guesses - youll get 1/3 right, so well be conservative and say you only get 6 right.
I dont know about you ( i had 5-6 blind guessses, but many educated or could easily eliminate 1). Say maybe 30 of those? lets put odds of each one of those at 50% being right. that means youve gotten 29 wrong so far. Thats still a pass
I also assume that there will be questions you thought you were right on but fell for a trap. I think a good % is that 85% of the ones you felt good about youll actually get (maybe a bit conservative). So that means youd get another .15*70 10 or so wrong, putting you at 39. So i would say worst case, thats about a 67.5%, which could be a (and i would guess it is) a pass. And thats with some (i would say) agressive assumptions or "worst case scenario" type deal.
In the end though, who knows. Just gotta wait it out.
GL |
|
