8.Manuel Mercado, CFA has performed the following two regressions on sales data for a given industry. He wants to forecast sales for each quarter of the upcoming year.
| Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | Intercept | 31.40833 | 1.4866 | 21.12763 | Q1 | -3.77798 | 1.485952 | -2.54246 | Q2 | -2.46310 | 1.476204 | -1.66853 | Q3 | -0.14821 | 1.470324 | -0.10080 | TREND | 0.851786 | 0.075335 | 11.20848 |
The dependent variable is the level of sales for each quarter, in $millions, which began with the first quarter of the first year. Q1, Q2, and Q3 are seasonal dummy variables representing each quarter of the year. For the first four observations the dummy variables are as follows: Q1 1,0,0,0), Q20,1,0,0), Q30,0,1,0). The TREND is a series that begins with one and increases by one each period to end with 24. For all tests, Mercado will use a five percent level of significance. Tests of coefficients will be two-tailed, and all others are one-tailed. 题目：Using Equation ONE, what is the sales forecast for the second quarter of the next year?
A) $56.02 million. B) $51.09 million. C) $49.72 million. D) $46.31 million. The correct answer was B) The estimate for the second quarter of the following year would be (in millions): 31.4083 + (-2.4631) + (24+2)*0.851786 = 51.091666. 请问老师，我理解trend取值从1开始，每期增加1，直到24结束，这样，代入题目取值为2，但是题目取值为26，请问老师，trend取值这句话怎么翻译过来才正确？ | 
发表于 2008-3-26 13:06
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