以下是引用wzaina在2009-3-6 13:17:00的发言：
LOS d: Demonstrate how to conduct a global industry analysis by analyzing the return potential and risk characteristics of a prospective investment in a global context.
Q1. George Quayle teaches an entry-level business class at 8 a.m. on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays at Southern Coastal Idaho Polytechnic. This morning, Quayle plans to introduce his students to strategies for market analysis. He starts the class out with a discussion of competition and its effect on industries as well as individual stocks. Halfway through the class, Quayle passes out a handout listing the characteristics of markets in which investors are able to earn above-average returns. Here are some of the characteristics listed on the handout:
- A Herfindahl index value of more than 2.0.
- Moderate bargaining power for buyers.
- A government that tends to intervene.
- Substantial barriers to entry.
After finishing up his discussion of competition, Quayle makes the following statement about economic growth: “The most important driver of economic growth is technological advancement. When growth slows, private-sector innovators see opportunities and work even harder to develop products people can use. This dynamic can continue indefinitely, preventing the economy from regressing to a long-run steady growth rate.”
The 9 a.m. investing class has been studying the business cycle. Today, Quayle breaks down the business cycle, discussing the characteristics of all five stages: recovery, early upswing, late upswing, economy slows, and recession. Quayle explains how each stage of the business cycle is generally accompanied by a particular set of economic cues. He then quizzes the class on the signs of each stage, and which investments perform well during each stage. The students are then given the following information and asked to identify the business-cycle stage being described.
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Stage A |
Stage B |
- Interest rates are falling
- Bonds and some stocks perform well
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- Consumer confidence improves
- Real estate performs well
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After the quiz, Quayle ends the study of the business cycle and moves on to valuing stocks. He begins with a discussion of the franchise value, stating that only when a firm’s return on equity (ROE) exceeds its cost of capital should it reinvest in itself rather than distribute profits back to shareholders. As an introduction to the concept of franchise value, Quayle tells the students to calculate the intrinsic price-to-earnings (P/E) value for Golden Goblets, a stemware company. Golden Goblets earns an ROE of 15.4% and has a payout ratio of 28%. The required market return on equity is 14.6%, and the risk-free rate is 7.5%.
In Quayle’s 10 a.m. accounting class, he explains the vagaries of international accounting systems that don’t always match U.S. standards. Quayle discusses the global moves toward “convergence,” or efforts to move International Accounting Standards Board and U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board requirements together.
Next, Quayle tackles the problems U.S. analysts face in interpreting the financial statements of foreign firms. He says foreign financial reports are more difficult for U.S. analysts to handle than domestic statements, and presents four chief reasons for that difficulty:
1. Many countries’ financial-reporting rules are arcane or confusing.
2. Some companies do not publish their financial reports in English.
3. Some countries allow companies to produce financial reports infrequently, or long after the period covered in the reports.
4. Not all countries enforce regulations with enough vigor to ensure reliable financial statements.
After discussing the accounting issues, Quayle gives his students an assignment to research what would happen if the United States adopted IAS guidelines for leases.
The intrinsic P/E value of Golden Goblets is closest to:
A) 7.76.
B) 6.85.
C) 7.97.
Q2. Which of Quayle’s statements regarding foreign financial information is least relevant to his contention that foreign financial reports are more difficult to analyze?
A) Many countries’ financial-reporting rules are arcane or confusing.
B) Not all countries enforce regulations with enough vigor to ensure reliable financial statements.
C) Some companies do not publish their financial reports in English.
Q3. Which of the following characteristics is least likely to indicate a market in which investors can earn high returns?
A) Moderate bargaining power for buyers.
B) A government that tends to intervene.
C) A Herfindahl index value of more than 0.2.
Q4. If the U.S. adopted the IAS treatment of financial leases, what would happen to the average company’s:
Return on equity Current ratio
A) Decrease No change
B) Increase No change
C) Decrease Increase
Q5. Quayle’s statement about economic growth is indicative of which of the following theories?
A) Endogenous growth.
B) Neoclassical growth.
C) Classical growth.
Q6. In the quiz Quayle gave to his 9 a.m. class, which business-cycle stages are most likely being described?
Stage A Stage B
A) Economy slows Recovery
B) Recession Late upswing
C) Economy slows Early upswing
Q7. Which of the following procedures in a global industry analysis is least important to perform? Analysts should examine:
A) the level of cooperation along the value chain.
B) how changes in gross domestic product (GDP) affect sales.
C) all of the firms in the industry.
Q8. In assessing the risks in a global industry analysis, which of the following tasks is the most important? Analysts should:
A) assess which firms in the industry are most likely to be profitable.
B) determine which firms in the industry are the most efficient producers.
C) examine the level of competition between industry firms.
Q9. Which of the following statements about performing a global industry analysis is FALSE?
A) Holding excess capacity is an effective way to mitigate against the threat of new entrants.
B) In general, as the number of buyers in an industry increases, the buyer power decreases.
C) In general, as the number of suppliers in an industry decreases, the bargaining power of each individual supplier decreases.
发表于 2009-5-26 09:07
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