Charles Nicholls, chief investment officer of Gertmann Money Management, is reviewing the year-end financial statements of Zartner Canneries. In those statements he sees a sharp increase in inventories well above the sales-growth rate, and an increase in the discount rate for its pension assets. To determine whether or not Zartner Canneries is cooking the books, what should Nicholls do?
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To assess the meaning of the inventory increase, look for declines in industry turnover. And if Zartner changes its pension assumptions, Nicholls should see how those new assumptions compare to those found in the footnotes of financial statements from other companies in the same industry.
Junior analyst Xander Marshall sends an e-mail to his boss, Janet Jacobs, CFA, suggesting that Peterson Novelties is manipulating its results to artificially inflate profits. He cites four reasons for his conclusion:
Jacobs is less concerned about Peterson’s earnings than Marshall is, though she does resolve to check out one of his concerns. Which of Marshall’s observations best supports his conclusion?
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On its own, a declining LIFO reserve is not a sign of fraud. Peterson Novelties could have simply moved a lot of inventory and disclosed the LIFO liquidation in its footnotes. When unusual gains are recorded as revenue they will artificially boost sales growth. Each of the above issues are potential danger signs, but can also be easily explained in a manner beyond reproach. However, earnings from equity investments that do not generate cash flow are of very low quality and warrant further examination.
Frank Brill, CFA, is concerned that Moses Aviation is overstating its profits. The best indicator of such action would be Moses Aviation’s:
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While an unusually high sales-growth rate may indicate fraud, it could also indicate good management. It’s a yellow flag, but not the best indicator of accounting shenanigans. Rising inventory is also a dual signal. It could be meant to overstate profits, or it could simply reflect an actual buildup of inventory in response to market forces or corporate operations. However, companies should not recognize revenue from barter transactions. The additional revenue is likely to improperly boost profits.
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