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If the analyst assumes Magic Holdings, Inc. will produce a constant rate of dividend growth, the value of the stock is closest to:
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D1 | = (Earnings × Payout ratio) / average number of shares outstanding | |||||
| = ($200,000 × 0.625) / 50,000 = $2.50. | |||||
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ke | = risk free rate + [beta × (expected market return – risk free rate)] | |||||
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ke | = 7.5% + [1.8 × (13.0% - 7.5%)] = 17.4%. | |||||
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g | = (retention rate × ROE) | |||||
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| Retention = (1 – Payout) = 1 – 0.625 = 0.375. | ||||
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| = 200,000/500,000 = 0.4 | |||
g | = 0.375 × 0.4 = 0.15. |
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D1 | = (Earnings × Payout ratio) / average number of shares outstanding | |||
= ($150,000 × 0.60) / 75,000 = $1.20 | ||||
ke | = nominal risk free rate + [beta × (expected market return – nominal risk free rate)] | |||
Note: Nominal risk-free rate | = (1 + real risk free rate) × (1 + expected inflation) – 1 | |||
= (1.04)×(1.03) – 1 = 0.0712, or 7.12%. | ||||
ke | = 7.12% + [2.1 × (13.0% − 7.12%)] = 0.19468 | |||
g | = (retention rate × ROE) | |||
Retention | = (1 – Payout) = 1 – 0.60 = 0.40. | |||
ROE | = (net income / sales)(sales / total assets)(total assets / equity) | |||
= (150,000 / 1,000,000)(1,000,000 / 800,000)(800,000 / 400,000) | ||||
= 0.375 | ||||
g | = 0.375 × 0.40 = 0.15 |
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Value of stock | Growth model |
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Year one | Year two |
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D1 = 2.00 (1.25) = 2.50 (1.25) = D2 = 3.125 (1.20) = D3 = 3.75
P2 = 3.75/(0.14 - 0.08) = 62.50
N = 1; I/Y = 14; FV = 2.50; compute PV = 2.19.
N = 2; I/Y = 14; FV = 3.125; compute PV = 2.40.
N = 2; I/Y = 14; FV = 62.50; compute PV = 48.09.
Now sum the PV’s: 2.19 + 2.40 + 48.09 = $52.68.
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[td=1,1,130]Dividend growth rate | Stock price |
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Based on the sustainable growth model, the most likely forecast of the company’s future earnings growth rate is:
Net income = $1,000,000 Total equity = $5,000,000 Total assets = $10,000,000 Dividend payout ratio = 40%
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P/E ratio | Retention ratio |
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(An increase in the stock risk premium would have the opposite effect.)
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