Recent decline in interest rates have caused our pension liabilities to grow faster than ever experienced in our long history, but I am sure these low rates are temporary. I have looked at the charts and estimated the probability of interest rate levels, plan liabilities will again come back into line with our assets in aggressive equity securities. This investment exporuse will bring our plan to an over-funded status, which will allow us to use pension income to bolster out profitability.
描述这段话揭示的behavioral characteristic exhibited.
为什么是overconfidence而不是gambler's fallacy.
一般不是期盼back to normal的不都是gambler's fallacy么？作者: Hang-Directions 时间: 2012-5-2 13:38
He/she seemed to overstate about the likelihood of interest rate change without corresponding analysis we could have found in the extent, which however could be a foreseen trend of interest rate change.
I personally think that overconfidence bias(certainty overconfidence) is exhibited.
