nzharbinger

QUOTE:

以下是引用chon在2009-6-12 23:13:00的发言：

 

你这利率低应该是指实际利率,如果是名义利率的话,根据利率--汇率平价, 名义利率越高,贬值

 

你是在那里考的试啊?上海吗?

 

 

 

fully agree

nzharbinger

QUOTE:

以下是引用azimao在2009-6-12 23:56:00的发言：

但题目里给定INFLATION是STABLE的,所以真实利率就是下降的.

 

我了解了，如果real interest rate一样，但nominal interest rate跌了，那currency就涨，因为inflation跌了。但这题inflation is stable，nominal interest rate跌了，说明real interest rate确实跌了，currency就应该跌。但你单单从nominal interest rate跌了这一个条件就能判断currency跌吗？必须由inflation and norminal interest rate。所以试题答案是不是有错阿

nzharbinger

QUOTE:

以下是引用pruteus在2009-6-13 8:58:00的发言：

The question there is from which one we could conclude the currency change. Therefore answer is definitely not inflation as this indicator itself could not tell anything coz it's stable. Answer must be an indicator changed during this peroid.

 

I don't remeber what the third choice was. But the understanding is if short term rate picks up, economy is entering the stage of expansion. Inflation is associated with economic expansion. Currency depreciation should be explained this way. Also, for developed economies, expansion is usually triggered by currency depreciation, benefiting exports.

 

what u said was the increase in short term rate was associated with the depreciation in the currency due to the expansion of the economy. Further, the decrease in short term rate is associated with the apprciation of the currency. But the exam question is which one will NOT trigger the currency appreciation.

 

Let me put them in this way:

According to IRP F/S=(1+id)/(1+if)   Currency: DC/FC

If "if" decrease, "F/S" will increase. Therefore, the foreign currency will appreciate

 

Therefore, unless the real interest rate changes, the decrease in the norminal interest will cause the increase in the exchange rate. 

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-6-13 9:31:40编辑过]

nzharbinger

QUOTE:

以下是引用slaxlw在2009-6-13 9:35:00的发言：

The question asked which indicator is LEAST likely to cause appreciation.

 

A interest rate . B inflation.  C technology.  Inflation is flat and this factor alone is least likely to trigger appreciation.

 

fully agree

nzharbinger

QUOTE:

以下是引用chon在2009-6-13 11:52:00的发言：

下午ethics 第二大题, asset manager code of professional conduct 要求遵守

a) both code of ethics and professional standards and asset manager code of professional conduct

b)忘记了

c)所有employee 要填写什么保证书?

 

你们选什么?

 

a

nzharbinger

QUOTE:

以下是引用angel55m在2009-6-14 12:42:00的发言：

 

 

我的看法：Stable inflation will spur cash inflow into the country and thus currency appreciation.

 

这个考试就像是现实模拟，考完了讨论题目，也只能得出“某个答案正确的可能性更大”，不能绝对确定。也有许多人坚持自己的选择，就像坚信自己买的股票一定会赚钱一样。到底谁对谁错，只有时间会做出最后证明哈。

 

 

Your theory may be right in the long run. The question only gives two year's data and it definitely seeks the momentum change in the short run according to the classic theory such as IRP. IRP says it the interest rate goes down, the exchange rate will appreciate. My question is whether the real interest rate changes.

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-6-14 12:55:51编辑过]

nzharbinger

QUOTE:

以下是引用slaxlw在2009-6-15 12:53:00的发言：

 

 

有人记得早上倒数第三题有没有credit risk？好像是日元和加元汇率。

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-6-15 17:22:51编辑过]

 

能不能把题目再具体点，有点忘记了

nzharbinger

QUOTE:

以下是引用wuque在2009-6-16 0:55:00的发言：

做足分析后听到non-public material information，去买股票，属于violation。Schweser模拟题是这样判的。

 

 那个题我也做了，情况不一样的阿。CFA考题里他们买股票的intention是为了defense take-over，而不是manipulate market。notes上的是真的为了挣钱而manipulate market。

nzharbinger

两个礼拜过去了。看了那么多帖子，不知道大家的感想如何，还是不是有着当天考完那种如释重负的心情。我觉得以往都是上午的题稍难，靠下午的题拉点分。今年下午的题看似容易，其实很tricky。紧张的期盼8月18日成绩的公布。