Chuckrox8

You can earn a return greater than the coupon rate even if rates are unchanged. For instance, let’s say you buy a highly speculative issue with a really high discount rate. If the issuer does not default, you can realize a large return regardless of the coupon rate.
As for “expected” changes in rates - that depends on your definition of “expected”. If you take the yield curve to reflect market expectations, then it should be priced into the bond. If it’s based on your own expectations that differ from the market price, then the result depends on the situation.