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his aspiration levels is 2.1 Mill$ - so he requires a 5% return at 80% probability.
Given the -3% at 10% probability - the layer 2 would not meet that requirement. The other two probabilities 5% (80 percent probabillity), 9% (10 percent probabillity) only provide him with 4.9% at 90% probability. Now do you get it?

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