
- UID
- 223210
- 帖子
- 185
- 主题
- 146
- 注册时间
- 2011-7-11
- 最后登录
- 2013-9-26
|
Explanation of this question does not give me an idea about how to approach it. I mean, looking at the question or wording, how to figure out how to start on solving this question?
In fact, I am little shaky on the fundamentals(Bayes formula) being used. Is there any other approach to solve it? Or, worse, this can not be solved by any other approach at all? I normally try to approach these kind of questions by condition probability(probably missing the DO NOT ENTER sign) as I can't figure out this has to be done using Bayes formula. Can you guys tell me how you guys approach this question?
Cheryl Smith, CFA, conducts study comparing dividend changes for energy and non energy companies. Smith determines that 15% of the stock market universe consists of energy companies. Smith also determines that the probability that an energy company will increase its dividend is 90% and the probability that a non energy company will increase its dividend is 30%. After conducting her analysis, Smith randomly selects one company from the universe of stocks from the most recent quarter and notices that the company declared a dividend increase. The probability that Smith randomly selected an energy company is closest to:
A. 5%
B. 15%
C. 35% |
|