返回列表 发帖

basic conceptual error in Schweser?

I was looking at the paragraph at the top of page 143 in the Schweser Level III Book 1, and my basic sense of probability was offended. I know there are lots of errata in these things, but this is different because it can’t be a typo– it’s too specifically and adamantly wrong.
Basically, it states that if you draw a card from a normal 52 card deck of cards, you can know that the chance of it being a diamond is 1/4 (true). Then they state that if you take several decks of cards and shuffle them all together, then draw 52 cards at random, then draw a random card from those 52 cards, “we don’t know the odds of selecting a card from one of the four suits, because we don’t know the number of each suit in the sample.” FALSE FALSE FALSE! If you know the makeup of the decks of cards, then any random draw, whether just drawing one card or drawing 52 and then picking one of those at random will be a random sample of the original population, so it should still have a 1/4 chance of being a diamond.
I know it’s not very relevant from a test taking perspective (it’s not a math question but an explanation of a behavioral finance point) but I find it highly repugnant that such a basic mistruth could be penned by a schweser writer. Makes me doubt the quality of the writers/editors and makes me worry that I am reading bad info that I am not detecting.
Am I missing something here?

返回列表