johnnyBuz

cpk,
i understand that there are 2 differing effects that go in opposite directions and thats why the total effect is unkown/unchanged.
in my question, i was only focusing on the part of the answer dealing with the convenience yield, and trying to understand why the convenience yield increase causes backwardation and a roll return.
so the point in my last post was that the increased convenience yield causes F to be smaller, and since roll return is delta F - delta S, it becomes larger since F has to change more and more each period with a steeper  negative term structure.