Bluetick1010

> success/profit=0.8 * .8 = .64
> success/loss = 0.16
> failure/profit = 0.06
> failure/loss = 0.14
>
WRITING THIS IN CAPS TO HIGHLIGHT STUFF
NOTE THIS POINT HERE --- FORGOT TO WRITE THIS BEFORE
SUM OF ALL THE PROBABILITIES OBTAINED HERE SHOULD BE = 1.

YOU CANNOT GET MORE THAN OR LESS THAN 1. IF YOU DO - YOU ARE MAKING A MISTAKE SOMEWHERE. REMEMBER THESE ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS - EITHER A SUCCESS OR A FAILURE AND UNDER EACH CASE - EITHER PROFIT OR LOSS.

YOU MIGHT HAVE a BIGGER TREE --- 3 options maybe... but even then sum of probabilities at the FINAL node level should be 1.

Additionally - P(SUCCESS) = 0.8

P(success/profit) =0.8 * .8 = .64
P(success/loss) = 0.16

SUM of the ABOVE two = 0.8 = P(SUCCESS)

Again a check to see if you are working in the right direction.

Cheers

CP