spartanag07

Ok I will try....

Total probability is basically the probability something will happen, considering all the different pathways through which that something can occur (and weighting them accordingly given their probability.)  

Let's say I am a soccer player and want to work out the chances of me scoring a goal. I have 2 pairs of boots - red ones and blue ones. I can't wear both pairs at once (the scenarios are mutually exclusive) and I will always play wearing one of the pairs of boots (the scenarios are exhaustive).

Therefore, the total probability of me scoring a goal = (the probability of me scoring a goal in red boots x the probability of me wearing the red ones) + (the probability of me scoring wearing blue boots x the probability of me wearing the blue boots).

If I had 3 pairs of boots, the same logic would apply.  

Hope that helps