
- UID
- 223312
- 帖子
- 229
- 主题
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- 注册时间
- 2011-7-11
- 最后登录
- 2013-10-12
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status quo - has nothing to do with information / forecasts.. Remember it is an emotional bias.
Information / forecasts start to creep in with Cognitive biases.
Information - sticking to old - is Conservatism. (Belief perseverance)
Information - updating based on new - is Representativeness (Sample size neglect/Base rate neglect). (Belief perseverance)
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Another aspect to distinguish between Conservatism (belief pers) and Anchoring and Adjustment (Information processing) - In Anchoring and adjustment - you have new information about a company that its sales are going to be bad in the coming year/patent has not been approved / will be hurt by exports (things that tell you it is going down) - but past earning was 20$/share – you do not adjust that down. |
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