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- 2011-7-11
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- 2013-8-19
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The answers to all these questions is pretty much no. It's like learning Black scholes for the first time and deciding that you can make your computer beat the options market.
Doing this kind of analysis is good practice for CFA exams, but usually the bigger the company, the more difficult it is to get thing to tie out in neat CFA ways (I haven't looked at GOOG financials in probably ever so I don't know about them). There are all kinds of good lessons to be learned from FSA but the big ones are stuff like:
a) growth rates matter huge and they are unpredictable (at least to me).
b) there are lots of shenanigans in books that give you some idea of risk in investing in the company - off-balance sheet stuff, goodwill, treasury stock holdings, and just about anything you look at and say "What the heck is that?"
c) Debt is leverage for better or worse
d) Many of the items on the financials require examination - e.g. inventory for a silver producer is much more easily valued than inventory for Barnes and Noble.
e) You can use financials to do stuff like assess cash takeout risk on converts much more easily than you can use it to decide whether a stock is fairly priced.
So in general, you are being taught stuff that doesn't work for what the tell you it works for. But learning it is still valuable.
BTW - Imagine if Yahoo gets taken out by Blackstone or someone while Google is still investing money in driverless cars and windfarms. It will be the most differently managed companies to ever be the two market leaders in the history of the earth. |
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