lucasg85

The problem is that you end up in a circular argument which I think we all have nightmares about... "I think the answer is A, but I am not sure. Since I am not sure, A is likely to be a distractor, therefore the answer must be B or C. What do I do? Random guess: ER = 33%. But if my paranoid reasoning is correct picking B or C yields a ER = 50%. But what if my hunch of A is correct?"

This I hope illustrates the difference between randomly guessing and having some idea what you are doing. While random guessing should get you close to 33%, having some idea of what you are doing could well get you 0%.