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发表于 2011-10-10 22:14
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Some people are better at analyzing companies; others are better at macro-type bets (large cap/small cap; developed/emerging; sector; etc).
So part of the answer isn't about whether stock picking or asset allocation is inherently better, but where you think your specific edge is. If you really are a superior stock picker, then you have many more ways to make money with 8000 stocks to choose from vs maybe 150 ETFs and/or related indexes. But you'd are also taking on a lot of ideosyncratic risk, which - on average - is uncompensated unless you have superior analysis. Adding that risk is a bad idea unless you really do have stock-picking talent. If you do a decent job of making even moderate macro calls, it makes more sense to stick with an asset allocation and rebalance.
Remember also that this is a personal account and/or IRA, so former trader may have a day job that means they can't take the time to carefully watch 50 different stocks that are more or less correlated to the market. So there are fewer opportunities to outperform massively, but also fewer opportunities to mess up. If you are investing with a long term time horizon and have a day job that requires your brain cycles, asset allocation strategies are very reasonable. Otherwise you are going to be putting in a lot of work to add what will most likely wash out to a small improvement over holding the SPY.
It's also safer from a compliance point of view, because it is harder to be accused of inside trading an index, than a company.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at Wednesday, August 3, 2011 at 11:25PM by bchadwick. |
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