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- 2011-7-2
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15#
发表于 2011-8-24 23:35
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Same here: I was surprised, not by the low marks, but by the consistency of the distribution of the low marks. If i had not opened the books till the last couple of weeks, i would have understood. My AM and PM were almost complete opposites. It should be impossible (over a large sample) to do a good PM and an abysmal AM consistently: a level III black swan event perhaps.
While i accept that i may have given different answers to those required, nothing you can do about this, and i do believe the margin of error in these exams is very fine, i am nevertheless concerned ( in terms of the future probability of having the same event happen again) over the apparent lack of randomness with respect to the outcomes. Obviously i do not have the full sample to hand and this might be clearer if we did, but we are right to question any outcome that is significantly different from that expected: a fail might have been within the realms of probability, but the distribution of marks between AM and PM (you usually know when you have "really" messed) and the consistency of the AM marks may well be outside our confidence intervals.
I guess the point people are making is that they feel that the Am section marks are individually more than 2 standard deviations outside the average expected result.
I was the best prepared of all three levels having completed the curriculum this time: the first 2 levels i passed without completing the course. While i have never done any of the mocks or sample tests at any level, i do not think you need to do these to pass, as long as you know the curriculum and understand it.
Really, the AM made me look as if i did not have a clue, with the exception of the 70% on the Inst PM, which i answered more or less at the same level as most other questions in the AM: why would one randomly (like a monkey at a typewriter) come up with the correct answer in one section and miss the script entirely elsewhere? Perhaps the margin of error is too fine.
I do think the AM is harder though if you find the course at times divorced from market and economic reality, and hence disagree with the fundamental belief of efficient markets and general equilibrium on which much of the course is predicated. You do have to hold your breath and quietly bang your head against the wall, at times, while pretending to believe that we are at equilibrium and that MVOs, monte carlo, michaud resampling and everything else will realistically represent the boundaries and realities of the market and economic universe we are in.
While it is a very rigorous and extremely valuable course and correctly provides you with many of the tools and structures to manage portfolios within a close to normally distributed general equilibrium model, it does not really allow you to question it. Nevertheless, if we are doing the course we need to accept that is the CFAs beliefs and disciplines that we are agreeing to be tested on, and not our own. In other words, we have already accepted our fates just by signing up for the course. We can question the credibility of our fate, but we cannot complain about it. |
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