This years L2 pass rate? perhaps, present, putting, effort, higher

maratikus

Just for a little fun and perhaps distraction, what do we think this years pass rate might be on L2?

2009 = 41%
2008 = 46
2007 = 40
2006 = 48
2005 = 56
2004 = 32

Last summers L1 pass rate was 46% vs 32% for the Dec exam...

Are we due a higher pass rate with candidates putting the effort into their studies or will CFA present us with a shocker of a paper?

chaojimali

R^2 = RSS/TSS

t = (slope - assumed slope)/SE

F = MSR/MSE

SEE = [SSE/(n-k-1)]^.5

ninja1024

wait a minute guys, this would be an out-of-sample forecast.

make sure your RMSE is the smallest.

smuggycfa

I'm going to venture a guess of <40%.....38% to be precise.

Rasec

take a lag ...remove seasonality and find ou urself..

tianxin

BobFishcake Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark
> will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of
> confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between
> -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence)
>
> The regression never lies.

LOL!

genuinecfa

It's time series data, guys. AR(1) with seasonality

random_walker47

BobFishcake Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark
> will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of
> confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between
> -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence)
>
> The regression never lies.

What's your R^2? Did you test for conditional heteroskedasticity or serial correlation? Did you take into account the exam format has changed from essay to multiple choice?

NO EXCUSES

zephyranalyst

I have run a regression analysis and the pass mark will be between 34% and 39% (95% level of confidence). By 2025 the pass rate will be between -3% and 2% (95% level of confidence)

The regression never lies.

maryli

44%, everyone who used AF since L1 will pass!! whoot whoot