高华证券*策略研究*（强烈推荐）高盛昨晚在华尔街的一枚重磅炸弹，分析认为美国经济确定2008年进入衰退期，继续大幅下调GDP预测*美国策略*David J.Kostin
衰退期确认 - 回报率走势呈现V形、板块轮动高盛经济学家预测美国于2008年进入衰退期
预期实际GDP将在2、3季度平均下降1%（按年率），跟随性下调了澳大利亚08年GDP预测0.5%，日本08GDP预测下调0.2%，个人估计梁红也会跟随下调中国的GDP预测，估计最终会低于10%，昨日温总理的主持召开国务院常务会议时部署了保持物价稳定工作验证了前期我们对通胀的担忧，也更能感觉到政府对通胀前景的担心，政府调控过度的风险仍
然存在。
重新进行行业配置：美国进入衰退期后，偏重“防御型“美国当地的投资应该增仓医疗、日常消费品。这2个行业与能源、公用事业和电信将在经济衰退的初期跑赢大市。但周期性行业将持续跑输市场
资金流入是潜在的推动因素
目前美国比较大的Mutual Fund投资者正在减仓那些我们认为在经济衰退期将会跑赢大市的行业
高盛衰退期防御型组合
关于我们推荐的34只股票交易组合详情请参阅彭博<GSTHRECN>
预期实际美国GDP将在2、3季度平均下降1%（按年率）。根据目前的经济预测，2008年全年GDP将增长0.8%
上周发布的ISM指数47.7，非农薪酬增长18，000，失业率从目前5%上升至6.5%更加重市场对愈加恶化经济前景的担忧。作为调整的一部分，高盛经济学家预计美联邦基金利率于2008年3季度达到2.5%
图1：高盛更新预测的总结 截至 2008年1月9日
美国经济增长 2007E 2008E 2009E
实际 GDP 2.2% 0.8% 1.4%
消费支出 2.9 0.7 1.2
固定资产投资 4.7 0.5 (4.3)
房屋投资Residential (17.0) (22.1) (7.0)
消费价格 2.9% 3.3% 1.6%
核心CPI 2.5 2.3 2.1
失业率 4.6 5.8 6.5
美联邦基金利率 4.2 2.5 2.5
重新进行行业配置
自2007年秋季后我们一直推荐持有防御型行业，我们更新的行业配置更加偏重防御型板块以期在经济衰退期能够跑赢大市，我们强烈建议投资者增持医疗、消费品、能源和公用事业并减持金融、工业、原材料、IT。我们推荐的行业配置发生的三个最大变化是减持金融、IT，增持医疗保健
经济衰退、资本市场：回报率走势呈现V形、板块轮动在进入衰退的6个月里，日常消费和医疗保健是表现最好的两个板块；金融、IT和电信服务出现负回报率v形走势最低端出现板块轮动衰退期初防御型板块表现最好,周期性板块通常在衰退期末表现最好我们推荐的行业配置基于上述分析
资金流入：推动因素
主要的大型共同基金目前正在减仓那些我们认为在经济衰退期将会跑赢大市的品种。因为美国经济持续恶化，我们预期共同基金将调仓，持有我们推荐的更具防御型品种，那么资金流入后将推动上述板块跑赢大市并与我们推荐的行业配置保持一致
高盛建议美国经济衰退期投资防御型组合
我们建议增持日常消费品、公用事业和医疗保健
Impact to China's economy is under review, stay tune!
* The most recent economic data suggest that the shock waves from the housing sector slump and tighter credit conditions are pushing the US economy into recession. Accordingly, this morning we downgraded our already below-consensus economic forecast to reflect an outright contraction in economic activity in 2008.
* The most troubling news has been from the labor market. Beyond the December employment report, which showed a decline in private-sector payrolls and a significant increase in unemployment, we have also seen 1) plummeting job advertising, 2) rising jobless claims, and 3) a substantial erosion in consumer perceptions of job availability.
* Among other things, we expect the ramifications of an economic recession to include a significant decline in profit growth (7.5% on a year-over-year basis), further declines in house prices (for an ultimate peak-to-trough decline of 20%-25%), waning inflation pressures, and even more aggressive Fed rate cuts (to a 2.5% funds rate by late 2008).
The most recent economic data suggest that the shock waves from the housing sector slump and tighter credit conditions are pushing the US economy into recession. Accordingly, this morning we downgraded our already below-consensus economic forecast to reflect an outright contraction in economic activity in 2008.
Regular readers of our research will know that we have been concerned about the US economic growth outlook for some time. The housing downturn has been extremely deep, and in our view has some ways yet to run. It has worsened, and been worsened by, a sharp tightening in mortgage credit conditions that is apt to persist through 2008. In recent months, we have estimated the probability of recession at 40%-45%.
We now think that recession is the most likely scenario? not a done deal, but perhaps a 2 in 3 chance - and therefore have made this our base-case forecast.
What has changed our outlook for the worse? Over the past few weeks, we have seen clear signs that shock waves have moved from the epicenter of the housing/ credit markets to other areas of the economy:
1. The labor market. The most troubling news has come from the labor market.
Last Friday's employment report for December showed an outright decline in private-sector payroll jobs and a substantial increase in the unemployment rate.
As we have noted on many previous occasions, since World War II any increase in the three-month average of the unemployment rate by more than 1/3 of a percentage point has been associated with recession (December's report tripped this barrier). Furthermore, leading indicators of employment activity suggest further deterioration. For example, the pool of jobless claimants has continued to rise since the employment survey was taken, and online job advertising has plummeted over the last two months.
2. Consumer spending. Although consumer spending has held up reasonably well in the hard data so far, pressures are mounting. Recent anecdotal news on the holiday shopping season has been mixed at best. Though the November retail sales report was strong, it probably benefited from favorable calendar effects that will be reversed in December (see "November Retail Sales-Less Than Meets the Eye," US Daily, December 10, for more details).
Consumer confidence has been very weak, and gasoline prices have risen further.
3. Business activity. Recent information on business-sector output and investment has been quite disappointing. The semiannual survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in mid-December suggested that capital expenditures would be quite soft in 2008, especially in the non-manufacturing sector. More recently, the ISM's monthly manufacturing index moved well below 50, suggesting that the factory sector is in outright
decline already.
The recession is likely to last 2-3 quarters and should be relatively mild by historical standards, with a cumulative decline in real GDP of only about 1/2% (not annualized). There are three reasons to anticipate a relatively mild downturn. First, we expect Fed officials to set aside their residual inflation concerns and cut the fed funds rate aggressively to 2 1/2% by late 2008, with a 50-basis-point cut at the January 29-30 FOMC meeting. Likewise, 10-year Treasury note yields are likely to decline a bit further to 3 1/2% by late summer. Second, with influential economists on both side of the aisle calling for fiscal stimulus, there is a decent chance that Congress and the Bush administration will agree on a temporary tax cut to take effect later this year, especially if the economic data remain weak. Third, although global growth is slowing somewhat, the weak dollar and the shrinking trade deficit are likely to continue to support activity in export-oriented sectors. In terms of sectors, consumer spending is likely to post a (small) outright decline?unlike in the 2001 recession?as the housing downturn spills over via a negative wealth effect and consumers find it harder to obtain credit. The downturn in capital spending should be more moderate than in 2001, largely because the starting point is much less elevated. The decline in economic activity is likely to push up the unemployment rate to about 6 1/4% by late 2008 and will likely result in a significant setback in corporate profits,
by about 7 1/2% on an after-tax basis (GDP definition). With our switch to an outright recession call, we have also deepened our forecast for the cumulative decline in nominal house prices, to a 20%-25% peak-to-trough
decline from a 15% drop previously.
Despite our near-term concerns, we are quite optimistic about the economy's longer-term prospects. Many economists have turned more cautious about the longer-term growth outlook, but we believe that most of the recent weakness in productivity is cyclical and estimate that real GDP can grow at close to a 3% trend rate without igniting inflationary pressures. Currently, this estimate is near the top end of the range of US economic forecasters.
Impact to China's economy is under review, stay tune!
FORECAST CHANGE - US Economy Falling Into Recession; Funds Rate to Fall to 2.5% January 9, 2008 The recent data suggest that the US economy is falling into recession. We expect economic activity to contract modestly through
late 2008, followed by a gradual recovery in the course of 2009. Fed officials are likely to respond by cutting the funds rate target to 2 1/2% by late 2008.
1. Over the past few months, we have become increasingly concerned that the US housing and credit market downturn would trigger not just a growth slowdown and substantial Fed easing -- our long-standing view -- but also an outright recession. The latest data suggest that recession has now arrived, or will very shortly. The unemployment rate has now risen by more than 1/3 percentage point from the cycle trough. Historically, this has invariably
been associated with recession, typically starting immediately and almost always within three months.
2. The recession is likely to last 2-3 quarters and should be relatively mild by historical standards, with a cumulative decline in real GDP of only about 1/2% (not annualized). There are three reasons to anticipate a relatively mild downturn. First, we expect Fed officials to set aside their residual inflation concerns and cut the fed funds rate aggressively to 2 1/2% by late 2008, with a 50-basis-point cut at the January 29-30 FOMC meeting. Likewise, 10-year Treasury note yields are likely to decline a bit further to 3 1/2% by late summer. Second, with influential economists on both side of the aisle calling for fiscal stimulus, there is a decent chance that Congress and the Bush administration will agree on a temporary tax cut to take effect later this year, especially if the economic data remain weak. Third, although global growth is slowing somewhat, the weak dollar and the shrinking trade deficit are likely to continue to support activity in export-oriented sectors.
3. In terms of sectors, consumer spending is likely to post a (small) outright decline -- unlike in the 2001 recession -- as the housing downturn spills over via a negative wealth effect and consumers find it harder to obtain credit. The downturn in capital spending should be more moderate than in 2001, largely because the starting point is much less elevated. The decline in economic activity is likely to push up the unemployment rate to about 6 1/4% by late 2008 and will likely result in a significant setback in corporate profits, by about 7 1/2% on an after-tax basis (GDP definition). With our switch to an outright recession call, we have also deepened our forecast for the cumulative decline in nominal house prices, to a 20%-25% peak-to-trough decline from a 15% drop previously.
4. Despite our near-term concerns, we are quite optimistic about the economy?Ts longer-term prospects. Many economists have turned more cautious about the longer-term growth outlook, but we believe that most of the recent weakness in productivity is cyclical and estimate that real GDP can grow at close to a 3% trend rate without igniting inflationary pressures. Currently, this estimate is near the top end of the range of US economic forecasters.
<<US Economy Slippi ng Into Recession 080109.pdf>>
<<US Prepare for recession 080109.pdf>>
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[此贴子已经被作者于2008-1-14 17:54:57编辑过] |
发表于 2008-1-14 17:42
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