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Reading 23: Capital Market Expectations-LOS d

CFA Institute Area 6: Economics
Session 6: Economic Concepts for Asset Valuation in Portfolio Management
Reading 23: Capital Market Expectations
LOS d: Explain the use of survey and panel methods and judgment in setting capital market expectations.

Which of the following describes a method of setting capital market expectations where a consistent set of experts is asked for their opinion regarding the future?

A)
A panel method.
B)An algorithmic method.
C)A market-adjusted algorithmic method.
D)A shrinkage estimator.


Answer and Explanation

Capital market expectations can also be formed using surveys. If the group polled is fairly constant over time, this method is referred to as a panel method.

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Which of the following regarding the setting of capital market expectations is least accurate?

A)Capital market expectations can also be formed using surveys.
B)When a survey uses a consistent set of experts, the method is referred to as panel method.
C)
Quantitative models should not be adjusted for an analysts subjective opinions.
D)Judgment can be applied to project capital market expectations.


Answer and Explanation

Although quantitative models provide objective numerical forecasts, there are times when an analyst must adjust those expectations using their insight to improve upon those forecasts.

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Which of the following regarding the setting of capital market expectations is least accurate?

A)Analysts should adjust the forecasts from quantitative models using judgment, when appropriate.
B)Surveys can be used to form capital market expectations.
C)
Surveys of practitioners have found them to be consistently more pessimistic than that of academics.
D)When a fairly constant set of experts is polled, this method is referred to as panel method.


Answer and Explanation

Studies have found that the expectations of practitioners are consistently more optimistic than that of academics.

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j

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d

d

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