aidebaobao

me.tega Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> bpdulog Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Okay, so can I sum it up as the following:
> >
> > If only: I predict Fed will increase rates, but
> > instead they decreased it.
> >
> > Ceteris paribus: I predict the Fed will
> increase
> > rates, but they decreased it because of
> inflation
> > concerns.
>
> Let's refine it a little bit more.
>
> Professor X wrote an article: I believe that
> inflation will rise and this will force the fed to
> increase rates.
>
> Incidence: GDP growth slowed down leading to lower
> inflation. Fed increased rates.
>
> If only: if only inflation rose, the fed would
> have raised rates.
>
> Ceteris paribus: There was a slow down in economic
> growth which forced the fed to raise rates.
>
> Lesson: GDP growth was not considered in the
> analysis, therefore, all was not equal (ceteris
> paribus). Inflation was considered but it went the
> other way (if only).


You just confused me even more. Is:

Ceteris paribus - some exogenous variable impacted your forecast, causing it to fail.
If only - the variables you forecasted directly went in the completely
opposite direction.

?

NO EXCUSES