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If only vs ceteris paribus

The way ceteris paribus is explained in the book is confusing. They use the example:

So the stock market would have crashed but for the presence of government led manipulation.
(Level III Volume 2 Behavioral Finance, Individual Investors, and Institutional Investors , 4th Edition. Pearson Learning Solutions 74).
<vbk:9780558655952#page(74)>

Aren't they also saying their analysis would have been correct if the government didn't manipulate the market? Sound like it could be the if only defense too.

NO EXCUSES

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