thommo77

bpdulog Wrote:
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> Okay, so can I sum it up as the following:
>
> If only: I predict Fed will increase rates, but
> instead they decreased it.
>
> Ceteris paribus: I predict the Fed will increase
> rates, but they decreased it because of inflation
> concerns.

Let's refine it a little bit more.

Professor X wrote an article: I believe that inflation will rise and this will force the fed to increase rates.

Incidence: GDP growth slowed down leading to lower inflation. Fed increased rates.

If only: if only inflation rose, the fed would have raised rates.

Ceteris paribus: There was a slow down in economic growth which forced the fed to raise rates.

Lesson: GDP growth was not considered in the analysis, therefore, all was not equal (ceteris paribus). Inflation was considered but it went the other way (if only).