I would like to see what the pass rates for level 2 are if you separated the people who passed level 1 in June from those that took it in December. I safe bet is June but I would like to see the actual percentage.
then you have to separate people who took level 1 in june 2012/2011/2010….-10 years ago, same thing for december and then you have separate the 1st -2nd, 3rd ….. time retakers, and maybe also separate by how many times they took level 1 before they got it (and whether they got it in june or december, or which year of course)
that should occupy you until the results are sent.. good luck
If you ignore the above observation and consider only the first timers, you can paint a pretty grim picture. Start with 100 at L1. ~40% pass.
Out of those 40, ~40% pass L2. This is really optimistic since the 40% passing at L2 will include retakers from previous batches - in any case, it is an assumption to finish painting the picture. So we have 16 (out of the original 100) people making it through to L3.
And then at L3, ~50% pass. So you’d have 8 people making it through. Again, this assumes there are no retakers.
Now include retakers (maybe run a Monte Carlo simulation in an Excel sheet - you can even have variables for June vs. Dec L1). My guess is you’d probably have like 4 people who make it through the first time around at each level.
Edit: Maybe S2000 can improve on these numbers with all his math wizardry.
Yeah I understand the pass rate as far as each level and getting through the whole program. I would just like to see those who passed L1 in June vs L1 in December.
While you would have less people making it throught he first time around if you assume the passes are all on the first try and those who fail drop out, if you assume that some of those fails retake and pass then you have a much higher % of those who enter the program completing it.
Impossible to tell – but you’d have to assume that those who passed Level I in June will have more preparation time + less burnout than those who just passed in December. If I were to guess, I’d say at the June-June pass rate is closer to 45% while the December-June pass rate is closer to 35%.
发表于 2013-8-9 09:45
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